The holiday dust settles. Returns slow down. Inventory levels stabilize. And suddenly January becomes the most important strategic moment of the year: the bridge between what worked, what didn’t, and what needs to be built next.

Q1 is where brands either solidify their foundation or start playing catch-up until summer.

This is the moment when high-growth teams zoom out, analyze their Q4 learnings, and refine the roadmap for the next 90 days not with guesswork, but with real forecasts, structured planning, and aligned channel strategies.

Below is the Convert Via approach to Q1 planning, built from what we do across Shopify, Klaviyo, paid media, CRO, and retention for our clients.

1. Q4 Data → Q1 Decisions: The Right Debrief Makes the Roadmap

Most brands look at top-line holiday revenue and move on. But Q4 is the most data-rich period of the entire year and if you don’t analyze it correctly, you’ll miss major growth levers.

The Q4 Metrics That Actually Matter for Q1 Planning

• New vs returning customer mix

• Top-gifted SKUs (giftability creates Q1 replenishment opportunities)

• Return reasons by SKU (product or messaging fix?)

• LTV prediction by holiday cohort (Triple Whale)

• AOV lift drivers (bundles, upsells, smart cart behavior)

• Top-performing email segments + engagement peaks

• SMS deliverability and engagement by device

• Browse → checkout → purchase funnel friction

• Paid media channel capacity (CPMs, post-holiday retargeting efficiency)

• Creative winners vs fatigue patterns
  
  

Convert Via POV:

We turn Q4 into a ground truth baseline for Q1 planning by analyzing:

• Customer intent signals

• Rebuy recommendation patterns

• Klaviyo predictive scores

• Shoplift conversion winners

• On-site behavior heatmaps (Clarity)

• Inventory velocity + sell-through risk

• Category performance trends

The goal? Create a Q1 plan that matches who your customer actually is not who you assume they are.

2. How Convert Via Forecasts Q1 Revenue (Our Framework)

Forecasting isn’t “pick a number and hope.” It’s structured math, behavior modeling, and channel-level probability especially after unpredictable Q4 swings.

Our Q1 Forecasting Model Includes:

A. Historical Baseline

• Q1 YoY performance

• Traffic + conversion by channel

• Seasonality multipliers

B. Post-Holiday Buyer Modeling

• Holiday cohort LTV likelihood

• Predicted replenishment cycles

• Subscription conversion probability

C. Channel-Specific Capacity Math

• Paid media bid environments

• CPM/CPC normalization post-holiday

• Inventory-driven demand caps

• Email/SMS sendability + audience size

• Organic and SEO seasonal trends

D. On-Site Conversion Inputs

• Q4-tested layouts (Shoplift)

• Rebuy AI-predicted upsell lift

• Product availability + pre-orders

• Page speed + LCP performance

E. External Market Variables

• Tax refund season timing

• Weather-related demand swings

• Retail competitor calendars

• Consumer spending trends

Convert Via POV:

We don’t forecast on optimism. We forecast on technical, behavioral, and economic indicators and build “probable scenarios,” not just goals. Our Q1 forecast acts as the North Star for creative, inventory, promotion, and budget allocation.

3. What Brands Should Prioritize in Q1

Q1 is a reset a chance to correct Q4 weaknesses, capitalize on holiday momentum, and build systems that can scale.

Top Q1 Priorities for High-Growth Brands:

• Retention over acquisition (Q4 buyers = Q1 money)

• Fixing conversion friction observed in November/December

• Cleaning up product organization & tagging

• Rolling out loyalty programs or tier upgrades

• Launching evergreen subscription funnels

• Optimizing high-volume flows in Klaviyo

• Building content frameworks for Q2

• Recalibrating ad creative for non-gift seasons

• Improving site speed after holiday bloat

Operational Priorities:

• SKU cleanup + archive logic

• Inventory forecasting based on Q1 demand spikes

• Supplier timelines for new drops

• Updating PDP copy for non-holiday seasonality

Convert Via POV:

Q1 is about creating stability and predictability the two most overlooked drivers of profitable scaling.

4. Channel Planning: How to Build a Q1 Marketing Calendar That Converts

Q1 isn’t event-heavy like Q4, so brands need a seasonal narrative that drives demand.

Q1 Themes That Convert Well:

• “New Year Reset”

• “Fresh Start Essentials”

• “Upgrade Your Everyday”

• “Organize, Optimize, Evolve”

• “Travel Season Prep”

• “Valentine’s Day / Self-Love” (Feb)

• “Spring Preview” (late Feb–Mar)

How We Plan the Q1 Marketing Calendar (Convert Via Framework):

1. Weekly Cadence Planning

• Email 2–3x/week

• SMS 1–2x/week

• Paid: Retargeting-heavy to start, easing into prospecting by late Jan

• Social: 3–5 posts/week with product education + lifestyle

2. Key Channel Considerations:

• Email/SMS: Shift from gifting → personalization & replenishment

• Paid Media: Lower CPMs = higher ROAS potential

• Organic/SEO: Refresh evergreen content after holiday bloat

• Website CRO: Test hero banners, offer structure, and PDP content

• Affiliate/Creators: Lean into educational and lifestyle content

• Retail/Marketplace: Align inventory + promotions with DTC

3. Seasonal “Tentpoles” We Build Into Q1:

• Jan 1–10: Reset & Replenish

• Jan 10–31: Upgrade Season

• Feb 1–14: Valentine’s Day + Self-Love

• Late Feb: Spring Preview / New Arrivals

Convert Via POV:

A Q1 calendar is only effective if each channel speaks the same narrative and the offers ladder into forecasted revenue targets.

5. Q1 Creative Strategy: Moving Away from Holiday & Into Everyday Use

Holiday creative is emotional and gift-centric. Q1 creative needs to be practical and self-driven.

Creative angles that win Q1:

• transformation (“upgrade your X”)

• routine-building

• lifestyle education

• UGC showing everyday use

• travel season preparation

• product benefit storytelling

Media formats that perform strongest:

• product tutorials

• ASMR-style demos

• try-ons

• “what’s in my bag” style content

• problem-solution breakdowns

• before/after scenarios

Convert Via POV:

We rebuild a brand’s entire creative foundation in Q1, focusing on clarity, value, and real-life use cases — not holiday hype.

6. Q1 Technical Priorities: The Infrastructure Reset

After holiday chaos, Q1 engineering work sets the foundation for the rest of the year.

Technical resets we run with brands:

• Identify and remove holiday scripts that slow LCP

• Clean up collection filters + tagging (Orita.ai)

• Rebuild navigation for non-gifting seasons

• Optimize search functionality (instant search, predictive search)

• Update recommendation engines (Rebuy/Nosto)

• Re-evaluate theme bloat

• Prepare A/B test backlog in Shoplift AI

• Reconfigure personalization models for non-holiday traffic

Convert Via POV:

Brands dramatically underestimate how much Q4 “quick fixes” break Q1 performance.
Our role is to restore stability, speed, and personalization accuracy before scaling.

7. How Convert Via Helps Brands Build a Q1 That Scales

Q1 isn't about hype it’s about strategy + systems.

We help brands build a Q1 foundation that includes:

• Sales forecasting grounded in Q4 data

• Channel-by-channel planning

• Seasonal content and creative strategy

• Personalized retention programs

• Technical cleanup + performance audits

• A/B testing roadmaps

• Offer strategy optimized for margin + LTV

• Inventory + merchandising alignment

• Ad creative refreshes built for non-gift seasons

This is where Q4 chaos transforms into Q1 clarity — and where growth becomes predictable.